There are six incumbent Democrat senators who are in red states that are probably worried about reelection: Donnelly (IN), Heitkamp (ND), Manchin (WV), McCaskill (MO), Tester (MT) and Nelson (FL). Maybe seven if you count Baldwin in WI, but she’s a longshot.
They should ALL VOTE NO on Brett Kavanaugh and make Republicans win those seats in the fall. And then if they do, it’s two more years until another third of the senate is up for reelection. If they don’t, it’s likely Democrats take the Senate on the crest of a blue wave that was coming anyway. People act like Democrats would be giving up a seat forever when in fact they would be giving up a lifetime SCOTUS appointment if they vote yes.
How is Manchin going to get reelected when Kavanaugh agrees that 800,000 of his constituents don’t qualify for health insurance because they have a preexisting condition? How is Nelson going to hold his seat when environmental regulations are found unconstitutional for Big Sugar and the beaches are forever filled with blue-green algae? McCaskill can’t afford to have a reactionary conservative Supreme Court legislate the opioid epidemic with an iron gavel.
All of these Senators have significant working class (white) voters as their base and all of them got elected as Democrats from them. It’s not going to be a easy to sweep and gain the senate, and by many estimates it’s already out of reach. So why make it easy for Republicans when you still have a job to do?
Make Republican Senators categorically admit that they want a Supreme Court Justice in Kavanaugh who doesn’t believe the president should have to endure a criminal investigation during his tenure in office. Make them be the ones to own that, and don’t subject the Democratic party to further splintering in the future on terrible votes from the past (hello, Iraq War).
That will hurt the party more than losing a Senate we already didn’t have.